The town of Hayward had about 500 residents, and just 24,000 people lived in the East Bay in the immediate vicinity of the fault. The Hayward Fault is shorter than the San Andreas, running about 70 kilometers from Fremont to Point Pinole, and is therefore not expected to produce the magnitude-8-plus quakes we know the San Andreas can generate. In Berkeley, the fault runs beneath the University of California at Berkeley’s football stadium, where offset on the south wall can be seen. In many parts of the Bay Area, these roadways represent the only feasible way to move between areas; freeways physically isolate some communities, with pedestrian movement impossible between them. One way to assess this question is to compare a potential large Hayward quake to events of similar size in areas of similar population. Instead, the opposite is happening, and across the Bay Area, new homes are being built in fault zones with seemingly no consideration for what could happen to the people in them.

When it will happen is unknown, but the effects of such an event are quite clear: Major shaking to fragile infrastructure will result in loss of life and great economic damage. But if a quake occurred at 2 p.m. on a weekday, many people would be at work or school in vulnerable structures constructed with brick walls and unreinforced masonry. Ground movement also has the potential to destroy water delivery systems at multiple levels: at the household level, with pipes breaking and flooding homes or unsecured water heaters detaching; at the neighborhood level, with breaks in municipal water lines or water mains; and at the city level, with municipal water treatment plants failing or reservoirs and dams rupturing. Unfortunately, for the most part, such prudent preparations are not being made.

The San Francisco Bay Area also suffers from the unfortunate confluence of large populations and active faults.
Transportation problems will be felt immediately after the quake.

116,000), and is not far from the metropolises of San Francisco (pop. The Calaveras and San Antonio reservoirs store more than 180 million cubic meters of water, perched above the city of Fremont and its 224,000 residents. The last significant quake on the Hayward Fault was in October 1868. 945,000). The headquarters of Facebook and Google and Apple’s new “spaceship” campus are less than 20 kilometers away — all close enough for shaking to affect the operations of the companies.Given the Hayward’s proximity to large populations, its rupture presents a huge risk. Long stretches of freeways in the Bay Area sit near sea level, built on marshy tidal flats that will almost certainly experience liquefaction during the quake. Most of the Bay Area’s water is impounded in reservoirs, in hills far out of sight and out of mind of the residents. Repairs for many of these problems, which involve digging up streets and rebuilding major parts of the water infrastructure, would take months to years. Inundation maps based on ruptures from these reservoirs show the entire city of Fremont flooded, from the hills to the bay.

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