And when are lockdowns and other interventions likely to start to make a difference?Though there are some similarities – the picture is complexThe death toll in Britain is roughly two weeks behind that of Italy, according to researchers who have analysed the data.In week 10 of this year, ending 6 March, Italy announced 176 new Covid-19 deaths, comparable to the 166 deaths the UK reported in week 12.If the spread of the pandemic in the UK tracks Italy’s closely, the domestic death toll could soon rise sharply.Italian authorities recorded 1,066 new Covid-19 deaths in week 11, the equivalent of this week in the UK’s outbreak.“It looks as though we are two weeks behind Italy in number of Covid-19 deaths,” said Prof Sheila Bird, formerly of the MRC’s Biostatistics Unit at Cambridge University.“But all this means is that we have comparable population sizes and had a comparable number of deaths in week 12 as Italy had in week 10.
We may be on a less steep trajectory than Italy, but it’s too early to know yet.”On Monday, a new analysis of data from both countries showed that deaths may indeed be rising marginally more slowly in Britain than they did in Italy. Northern Italy contains mostly private companies, whereas the south is more agricultural and welfare dependent. Signing in allows you to ask questions in our community, contribute to our cost of living database, and more. There was “some reason for hope,” he said of the UK situation, “although we will must be ready for having hundreds of deaths a day.”The same analysis hints that Italy may be approaching a peak in its epidemic, but the answer will only be clear if the country continues to report falling numbers of new deaths over the coming days and weeks.The UK’s peak may not be so severe if the UK’s response to the outbreak has been effective, Spiegelhalter said, but the answer to that is not yet clear.Compared with Britain, Italy had less time to prepare, the virus may have been circulating more widely before it was detected, and the country has more older people who are more tightly connected to family and friends.However, comparisons present problems, as it’s not possible to truly compare like-with-like.One factor that will have a substantial impact on deaths is the capacity for hospitals to care for the most seriously ill patients, and this differs markedly from country to country. Alongside this, Italy’s median age rate will be higher than its neighbouring countries, with a median age of 51.4 predicted by 2050. And they will potentially still be increasing. “It’s quite likely to be at least three weeks before we see a slow down in the deaths. “Strictly speaking we should say something like: transmission in the UK four weeks ago was where Italy was about six weeks ago,” he said.For the same reason, the impact of the cascade of lockdowns across Italy, and ever more stringent restrictions on movement brought in across the UK, will take time to show up in the daily death tolls. Thus, with less to counterbalance the living longer dynamic, the overall age structure of the UK has tipped further towards the later-life age groups. There was “some reason for hope,” he said of the UK situation, “although we will must be ready for having hundreds of deaths a day.”The same analysis hints that Italy may be approaching a peak in its epidemic, but the answer will only be clear if the country continues to report falling numbers of new deaths over the coming days and weeks.The UK’s peak may not be so severe if the UK’s response to the outbreak has been effective, Spiegelhalter said, but the answer to that is not yet clear.Compared with Britain, Italy had less time to prepare, the virus may have been circulating more widely before it was detected, and the country has more older people who are more tightly connected to family and friends.However, comparisons present problems, as it’s not possible to truly compare like-with-like.One factor that will have a substantial impact on deaths is the capacity for hospitals to care for the most seriously ill patients, and this differs markedly from country to country.

It is a single index that summarizes the age distribution of a population. All rights reserved. The mid-14th-century plague reduced the peninsula’s population considerably, and a long period of population growth ended at the beginning of the 17th century. Italy’s birth rate is the lowest it has ever been since the unification of Italy and many young people are leaving the country to find job opportunities in other countries.

The UK is … while Italy is approximately 301,340 sq km, making Currently, Italy's foreign residents are outpacing the country's population growth with a foreign population that grew by 7.4% in 2012, compared to a population growth of just 0.5%. “When you hit the capacity of intensive care beds then you might get an additional shift up which could reset the rate of increase thereafter,” said Bird.One reason for Italy’s high death rate could be the country’s demographics – 23% of its population are aged 65 and over.

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